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Estimated increase in inundation probability with confidence intervals for Pensacola, Florida and Key West, Florida

机译：估计佛罗里达州彭萨科拉和佛罗里达州基韦斯特的淹没概率随置信区间的增加

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摘要

One of the most frequent and costly natural disasters that affects societies around the world is flooding. The combination of sea level rise and population growth in coastal regions makes it essential to continue improving flood management strategies. The main objective of this research is to model and compare the impact of sea level rise on the frequency of inundation for two Florida locations, Pensacola and Key West. The research is based on data from these two stations that benefit from existing long term sea level records, have similar relative sea level rise trends, but different surge histories and bathymetry. Pensacola is a sea port on Pensacola Bay, which joins the Gulf of Mexico. Water level records measured hourly are available starting in January 1924 till present. The Key West station is located at the southernmost point of Florida. The station's records are available starting in January 1913 till present and include water levels measured hourly. Both areas have been impacted by hurricanes. Hurricane Wilma in 2005 was the last major storm to impact Key West, while Hurricane Ivan in 2004 and Hurricane Katrina in 2005 were the last hurricanes to impact Pensacola.
机译：洪水是影响全世界社会的最频繁，代价最高的自然灾害之一。沿海地区海平面上升和人口增长相结合，使继续改善洪水管理战略变得至关重要。这项研究的主要目的是对两个佛罗里达州彭萨科拉和基韦斯特两个地点的海平面上升对淹没频率的影响进行建模和比较。该研究基于这两个站点的数据，这些数据得益于现有的长期海平面记录，具有相似的相对海平面上升趋势，但浪涌历史和测深方法不同。彭萨科拉（Pensacola）是位于彭萨科拉湾（Pensacola Bay）的海港，与墨西哥湾相连。从1924年1月至今，一直提供每小时测量的水位记录。基韦斯特站位于佛罗里达州的最南端。该站的记录从1913年1月开始一直提供到现在，其中包括每小时测量的水位。这两个地区都受到了飓风的影响。 2005年的威尔玛飓风是影响基韦斯特的最后一场大风暴，而2004年的伊凡飓风和2005年的卡特里娜飓风则是对彭萨科拉的最后一次飓风。

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