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Estimated increase in inundation probability with confidence intervals for Pensacola, Florida and Key West, Florida

机译：佛罗里达州佛罗里达州，佛罗里达州和基韦斯特的信心间隔估计淹没概率增加

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摘要

One of the most frequent and costly natural disasters that affects societies around the world is flooding. The combination of sea level rise and population growth in coastal regions makes it essential to continue improving flood management strategies. The main objective of this research is to model and compare the impact of sea level rise on the frequency of inundation for two Florida locations, Pensacola and Key West. The research is based on data from these two stations that benefit from existing long term sea level records, have similar relative sea level rise trends, but different surge histories and bathymetry. Pensacola is a sea port on Pensacola Bay, which joins the Gulf of Mexico. Water level records measured hourly are available starting in January 1924 till present. The Key West station is located at the southernmost point of Florida. The station's records are available starting in January 1913 till present and include water levels measured hourly. Both areas have been impacted by hurricanes. Hurricane Wilma in 2005 was the last major storm to impact Key West, while Hurricane Ivan in 2004 and Hurricane Katrina in 2005 were the last hurricanes to impact Pensacola.
机译：影响世界各地社会的最常见和昂贵的自然灾害之一是洪水。海平面上升和沿海地区人口增长的结合使得继续改善洪水管理策略至关重要。本研究的主要目的是模拟和比较海平面上升对两个佛罗里达地区的洪水频率的影响，彭萨科拉和基韦斯特。该研究基于来自这两个电台的数据，这些数据受益于现有的长期海平面记录，具有类似的相对海平面上升趋势，但不同的浪涌历史和沐浴疗法。 Pensacola是Pensacola Bay的海港，它加入了墨西哥湾。每小时测量的水位记录可在1924年1月开始到达。主要的西站位于佛罗里达州最南端。该车站的记录是在1913年1月开始的，直到目前并包括每小时测量的水位。这两个领域都受到飓风的影响。 2005年飓风威尔玛是影响钥匙西部的最后一次重大风暴，而2004年飓风Ivan和2005年的飓风是飓风撞击彭萨科拉的最后飓风。

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