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The ethical challenges and professional responses of travel demand forecasters.

机译：旅行需求预测者的道德挑战和专业回应。

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摘要

Thirty years ago scholars first presented convincing evidence that local officials use biased travel demand forecasts to justify decisions based on unstated considerations. Since then, a number of researchers have demonstrated convincingly that such forecasts are systematically optimistic---often wildly so---for reasons that cannot be explained solely by the inherent difficulty of predicting the future. Why do modelers---professional engineers and planners who use quantitative techniques to predict future demand for travel and estimate its potential impact on built and proposed transportation facilities---generate biased forecasts and otherwise tolerate the misuse of their work? On initial consideration, it is tempting to surmise that corrupt modelers are responsible for biased forecasting. Indeed, corruption is the most common explanation of forecasting bias and tales of mercenary behavior are all too common in the field. Data from in-depth interviews with twenty-nine travel demand forecasters throughout the United States and Canada, however, suggest new and different ways to understand the suspect behavior of transportation planning professionals.; Those most likely to introduce bias and invite misuse of travel forecasts assume that their technical analyses have little, if any, impact on policy making. For many, this leads to disillusionment and requires responses to cope with feelings of marginalization. Others, untroubled by their apparent lack of influence, are complacent and need ways to avoid the ethical questions of practice. Both types of practitioners circumscribe professional roles and rely on the self-deceptive strategies of evasion and excuse making to mute their own disquieting realities that undermine positive concepts of self. The disillusioned wish not to see that they do not matter and the complacent that they do. Bias and misuse seem to be the unintentional byproducts of these attitudes.; Beyond enhancing the understanding of the systemic failures of travel demand modeling, this research suggests practicable steps to reform and outlines an agenda for future work. Attention to these matters is important, not just to avoid expenditures on projects and programs that cannot be justified on the basis of sound utilitarian calculations, but also to restore and preserve the credibility of a profession.
机译：30年前，学者们首次提出令人信服的证据，表明当地官员使用偏见的旅行需求预测来证明基于未阐明考虑因素的决定的合理性。从那以后，许多研究人员令人信服地证明了这种预测是系统地乐观的-通常是非常疯狂的-出于无法仅仅由预测未来的固有困难来解释的原因。为什么建模人员（使用定量技术来预测未来旅行需求并估计其对已建成和拟议的运输设施的潜在影响的专业工程师和规划师）会产生偏差的预测，或者容忍对工作的滥用？最初考虑时，很容易推测腐败的建模者负责有偏见的预测。的确，腐败是预测偏差的最常见解释，雇佣军行为的故事在该领域太普遍了。然而，来自对全美和加拿大29个旅行需求预测者的深入采访所得出的数据，提出了新的和不同的方式来理解运输计划专业人员的可疑行为。那些最有可能引起偏见并引起旅行预测误用的人认为，他们的技术分析对政策制定几乎没有影响。对于许多人来说，这会导致幻灭，并需要做出反应以应对边缘化的感觉。其他人显然没有影响力，对此感到沾沾自喜，他们需要办法避免实践中的道德问题。两种类型的从业者都限制职业角色，并依靠逃避和借口制造的自我欺骗策略来使自己的令人沮丧的现实静音，从而破坏积极的自我概念。幻想破灭的人希望不要看到他们没有关系，而要看到他们的自满。偏见和滥用似乎是这些态度的无意副产品。除了增进对旅行需求建模系统性失败的理解之外，这项研究还提出了一些可行的改革步骤，并概述了未来工作的议程。注意这些事项很重要，不仅要避免在合理的功利主义计算基础上无法合理支出的项目和计划支出，而且还要恢复并维护专业的信誉。

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  • 作者

    Brinkman, P. Anthony.;

  • 作者单位

    University of California, Berkeley.;

  • 授予单位 University of California, Berkeley.;
  • 学科 Urban and Regional Planning.; Transportation.; Engineering Civil.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2003
  • 页码 198 p.
  • 总页数 198
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 区域规划、城乡规划;综合运输;建筑科学;
  • 关键词

  • 入库时间 2022-08-17 11:45:16

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