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Climate Change Northern Birds of Conservation Concern and Matching the Hotspots of Habitat Suitability with the Reserve Network

机译：气候变化北部保护鸟类和保护区网络与生境适宜性热点的匹配

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National reserve networks are one of the most important means of species conservation, but their efficiency may be diminished due to the projected climatic changes. Using bioclimatic envelope models and spatial data on habitats and conservation areas, we studied how efficient the reserve network will be in preserving 100 forest, mire, marshland, and alpine bird species of conservation concern in Finland in 2051–2080 under three different climate scenarios. The occurrences of the studied bird species were related to the amount of habitat preferred by each species in the different boreal zones. We employed a novel integrated habitat suitability index that takes into account both the species’ probability of occurrence from the bioclimatic models and the availability of suitable habitat. Using this suitability index, the distribution of the topmost 5% suitability squares (“hotspots”) in the four bird species groups in the period 1971–2000 and under the three scenarios were compared with the location of reserves with the highest amounts of the four habitats to study the efficiency of the network. In species of mires, marshlands, and Arctic mountains, a high proportion of protected habitat was included in the 5% hotspots in the scenarios in 2051–2080, showing that protected areas cover a high proportion of occurrences of bird species. In contrast, in forests in the southern and middle boreal zones, only a small proportion of the protected habitat was included in the 5% hotspots, indicating that the efficiency of the protected area network will be insufficient for forest birds in the future. In the northern boreal zone, the efficiency of the reserve network in forests was highly dependent on the strength of climate change varying between the scenarios. Overall, there is no single solution to preserving biodiversity in a changing climate, but several future pathways should be considered.
机译：国家保护区网络是物种保护的最重要手段之一，但由于预计的气候变化，其效率可能会降低。利用生物气候包络模型以及栖息地和保护区的空间数据，我们研究了2051-2080年在三种不同气候情景下，保护区网络在保护100种森林，泥潭，沼泽地和高山鸟类保护方面的效率。所研究鸟类的发生与不同北方地区每个物种所偏爱的栖息地数量有关。我们采用了一种新颖的综合栖息地适应性指数，该指数既考虑了物种从生物气候模型中出现的可能性，也考虑了合适的栖息地的可用性。使用该适用性指数，将1971-2000年期间和在三种情况下四个鸟类物种组中最适合的5％正方形（“热点”）的分布与四个鸟类中最高数量的保护区的位置进行了比较。研究栖息地网络的效率。在2051-2080年的情景中，在泥潭，沼泽地和北极山区的物种中，受保护的栖息地比例很高，占5％的热点区域，这表明受保护的区域涵盖了鸟类发生的比例很高。相比之下，在北部和中部北部地区的森林中，5％的热点仅包括一小部分受保护的栖息地，这表明保护区网络的效率将来对于森林鸟类来说将是不足的。在北部的寒带地区，森林保护网络的效率高度依赖于不同情景下气候变化的强度。总体而言，在不断变化的气候中保护生物多样性没有单一的解决方案，但应考虑一些未来的途径。

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