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Distinguishing random environmental fluctuations from ecological catastrophes for the North Pacific Ocean

机译：从北大洋的生态灾难中区分随机的环境波动

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The prospect of rapid dynamic changes in the environment is a pressing concern that has profound management and public policy implications(1,2). Worries over sudden climate change and irreversible changes in ecosystems are rooted in the potential that nonlinear systems have for complex and 'pathological' behaviours(1,2). Nonlinear behaviours have been shown in model systems(3) and in some natural systems(1,4-8), but their occurrence in large-scale marine environments remains controversial(9,10). Here we show that time series observations of key physical variables(11-14) for the North Pacific Ocean that seem to show these behaviours are not deterministically nonlinear, and are best described as linear stochastic. In contrast, we find that time series for biological variables(5,15-17) having similar properties exhibit a low-dimensional nonlinear signature. To our knowledge, this is the first direct test for nonlinearity in large-scale physical and biological data for the marine environment. These results address a continuing debate over the origin of rapid shifts in certain key marine observations as coming from essentially stochastic processes or from dominant nonlinear mechanisms(1,9,10,18-20). Our measurements suggest that large-scale marine ecosystems are dynamically nonlinear, and as such have the capacity for dramatic change in response to stochastic fluctuations in basin-scale physical states.
机译：环境中快速动态变化的前景是紧迫的问题，具有深远的管理和公共政策影响（1,2）。对突然的气候变化和生态系统不可逆转变化的担忧源于非线性系统具有复杂和“病理性”行为的潜力（1,2）。非线性行为已在模型系统（3）和某些自然系统（1,4-8）中显示，但在大规模海洋环境中的非线性行为仍存在争议（9,10）。在这里，我们显示了对北太平洋关键物理变量（11-14）的时间序列观察，似乎表明这些行为不是确定性的非线性，最好用线性随机描述。相反，我们发现具有相似属性的生物变量的时间序列（5,15-17）表现出低维非线性特征。据我们所知，这是海洋环境大规模物理和生物数据中非线性度的第一个直接测试。这些结果解决了关于某些关键海洋观测值的快速变化起源的持续争论，这些变化本质上是随机过程或主要的非线性机制引起的（1,9,10,18-20）。我们的测量结果表明，大型海洋生态系统是动态非线性的，因此具有响应盆地规模物理状态的随机波动而急剧变化的能力。

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