PROBABILISTIC ACCIDENT CONSEQUENCE UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF THE WHOLE PROGRAM PACKAGE COSYMA

J. Ehrhardt; J.A. Jones; L.H.J. Goossens

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PROBABILISTIC ACCIDENT CONSEQUENCE UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF THE WHOLE PROGRAM PACKAGE COSYMA

机译：整个程序包共时的概率事故后果不确定性分析

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The overall uncertainty analysis of the program package COSYMA for assessing the radiological consequences of nuclear accidents builds on the results of a series of individual uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of its submodules. A set of 186 model parameters was identified whcih contribute most to the uncertainties of endpoints. Probabilistic accident consequence assessments with 144 weather sequences were perforemd for each of 300 sample sets derived from the uncertainty distributions of these parameters by Latin hypercube sampling. The evaluation of the results provided confidence bounds for the complementary cumulatie frequency distributions of endopints for three differetn source terms covering a wide range ofrelease fractions. Concluding sensitivity analyses identified the most important model parameters responsible for the uncertainties of endpoints.

机译：用于评估核事故放射后果的整套计划COSYMA的总体不确定性分析建立在一系列单独不确定性及其子模块的敏感性分析的结果基础上。确定了一组186个模型参数，这对端点的不确定性贡献最大。对于300个样本集中的每一个，通过拉丁超立方体采样从这些参数的不确定性分布中推导出了144个天气序列的概率事故后果评估。结果的评估提供了涵盖三种释放源范围的三个不同来源项的内饰品的互补累积频率分布的置信界。结论敏感性分析确定了导致端点不确定性的最重要的模型参数。

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《Radiation Protection Dosimetry》 |2000年第3期|p.365-372|共8页
作者
J. Ehrhardt; J.A. Jones; L.H.J. Goossens;
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收录信息美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类 TL72;
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1. PROBABILISTIC ACCIDENT CONSEQUENCE UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF THE FOOD CHAIN MODULE IN THE COSYMA PACKAGE [J] . J. Brown, J.A. Jones Radiation Protection Dosimetry . 2000,第3期

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机译：Cosyma包中最新健康效应模块的概率事故后果不确定性分析
3. PROBABILISTIC ACCIDENT CONSEQUENCE UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF THE EARLY HEALTH EFFECTS MODULE IN THE COSYMA PACKAGE [J] . J.B. Grupa, I. Hasemann Radiation Protection Dosimetry . 2000,第3期

机译：Cosyma包中早期健康影响模块的概率事故后果不确定性分析
4. THE PROGRAM PACKAGE COSYMA FOR ASSESSING THE CONSEQUENCES OF NUCLEAR ACCIDENTS AND ITS APPLICATION IN PARAMETER STUDIES ON COUNTERMEASURES [C] . J. EHRHARDT, I. HASEMANN, J. QU International symposium on nuclear energy and the environment;NEE; 19961014-18;19961014-18; Beijing(CN);Beijing(CN) . 1996

机译：评估核事故后果的程序包共性及其在对策研究中的应用
5. A coupled probabilistic hydrologic/hydraulic modeling framework to investigate the impacts of hydrograph uncertainty on flood consequences. [D] . Ahmadisharaf, Ebrahim. 2016

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6. Modeling Uncertainties in EEG Microstates: Analysis of Real and Imagined Motor Movements Using Probabilistic Clustering-Driven Training of Probabilistic Neural Networks [O] . Martin Dinov, Robert Leech 2017

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7. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for internal dosimetry. Volume 1: Main report [O] . Goossens, L.H.J., Kraan, B.C.P., Cooke, R.M., 1998

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8. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for internal dosimetry. Volume 1: Main report [R] . 1998

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PROBABILISTIC ACCIDENT CONSEQUENCE UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF THE WHOLE PROGRAM PACKAGE COSYMA

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