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Are Individuals' stated preferences for electric vehicles (EVs) consistent with real-world EV ownership patterns?

机译:个人对电动汽车(EVS)的偏好是与现实世界的EV所有权模式一致吗?

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Previous studies on factors affecting electric vehicle (EV) adoption mainly rely on individual stated preference surveys or aggregate market share analyses. This paper applies both approaches to study EV adoption patterns in the state of Virginia to compare and contrast findings from the two methods. An individual-level vehicle fuel type choice model is developed based on a 2018 stated preference survey of 837 Virginia drivers. A county-level EV ownership model is developed using Department of Motor Vehicles' 2012-2016 vehicle registration data. Results show several consistent findings: 1) being male and having higher educational attainment have positive effects on EV adoption; 2) availability of DC fast charging stations is positively associated with EV adoption, particularly for battery electric vehicles (BEVs). However, the age effects are found to be inconsistent between the two study approaches: older individuals state negative preferences for EVs whereas counties with greater share of older populations are associated with more EV registrations. Additionally, the individual vehicle choice model complements the county-level EV ownership analysis by examining the effects of various vehicle-related attributes: 1) model results show positive effects of EV purchase incentives but negligible effects of EV annual use fees on EV preferences; 2) battery range is found to be significant for the utility of BEVs, but not for plug-in hybrid EVs; and 3) EV owners place greater importance on battery range and DC fast charging stations than non-EV owners. The combined analysis confirms several influential factors of EV adoption, and identifies instances when stated preference/interest are not consistent with real-world ownership patterns, which should be explicitly considered in EV policy making.
机译:以前关于影响电动车辆(EV)采用的因素的研究主要依赖于个体说明的偏好调查或汇总市场份额分析。本文采用两种方法来研究弗吉尼亚州的EV采用模式,以与两种方法进行比较和对比发现。基于2018年的837弗吉尼亚司机的偏好调查,开发了个性级车辆燃料型选择模型。县级EV所有制模型是使用汽车部门2012-2016车辆登记数据的开发。结果表明,几个一致的调查结果:1)是男性,具有更高的教育程度对EV采用具有积极影响; 2)DC快速充电站的可用性与EV采用正相关,特别是对于电池电动车(BEV)。然而,在两项研究方法之间发现年龄效应是不一致的:老年人对EV的状态负偏好,而具有更多较老群体的县与更多的EV注册有关。此外,各种车辆选择模型通过检查各种车辆相关属性的影响:1)模型结果表明EV购买激励措施的积极影响,但EV年度使用费对EV偏好的影响; 2)发现电池范围对于BEV的效用是重要的,但不是用于插件混合动力EVS; 3)EV业主对电池范围和DC快速充电站的更重要,而不是非EV业主。合并分析证实了EV采用的几个有影响力的因素,并确定了所说的偏好/兴趣与现实世界所有权模式不一致的情况,这应该在EV政策制定中明确审议。

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