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Attribution of extreme weather events in Africa: a preliminary exploration of the science and policy implications

机译：非洲极端天气事件的归因：科学和政策含义的初步探索

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摘要

Extreme weather events are a significant cause of loss of life and livelihoods, particularly in vulnerable countries and communities in Africa. Such events or their probability of occurring may be, or are, changing due to climate change with consequent changes in the associated risks. To adapt to, or to address loss and damage from, this changing risk we need to understand the effects of climate change on extreme weather events and their impacts. The emerging science of probabilistic event attribution can provide scientific evidence about the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to changes in risk of extreme events. This research has the potential to be useful for climate change adaptation, but there is a need to explore its application in vulnerable developing countries, particularly those in Africa, since the majority of existing event attribution studies have focused on mid-latitude events. Here we explain the methods of, and implications of, different approaches to attributing extreme weather events in an African context. The analysis demonstrates that different ways of framing attribution questions can lead to very different assessments of change in risk. Crucially, defining the most appropriate attribution question to ask is not a science decision but one that needs to be made in dialogue with those stakeholders who will use the answers. This is true of all attribution studies but may be particularly relevant in a tropical context, suggesting that collaboration between scientists and policy-makers is a priority for Africa.
机译：极端天气事件是造成生命和生命损失的重要原因，特别是在非洲的脆弱国家和社区。由于气候变化，此类事件或其发生的可能性可能正在发生或正在发生变化，随之而来的是相关风险的变化。为了适应或应对这种不断变化的风险，我们需要了解气候变化对极端天气事件的影响及其影响。新兴的概率事件归因科学可以提供有关人为气候变化对极端事件风险变化的贡献的科学证据。这项研究可能对适应气候变化有用，但由于大多数现有的事件归因研究都集中在中纬度事件上，因此有必要探索其在脆弱的发展中国家，特别是在非洲的发展中国家的应用。在这里，我们解释了在非洲背景下归因于极端天气事件的不同方法的方法及其含义。分析表明，对归因问题进行框架化的不同方法可能导致对风险变化的评估大相径庭。至关重要的是，定义最合适的归因问题不是科学决定，而是需要与将使用答案的利益相关者进行对话时做出的决定。所有归因研究都是如此，但在热带环境下可能尤为重要，这表明科学家与决策者之间的合作是非洲的优先事项。

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