Understanding Recent Climate Change

MARK C. SERREZE

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Understanding Recent Climate Change

机译：了解最近的气候变化

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The Earth’s atmosphere has a natural greenhouse effect, without which the global mean surface temperature would be about 33 C lower and life would not be possible. Human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and other gases in trace amounts. This has enhanced the greenhouse effect, resulting in surface warming. Were it not for the partly offsetting effects of increased aerosol concentrations, the increase in global mean surface temperature over the past 100 years would be larger than observed. Continued surface warming through the 21st century is inevitable and will likely have widespread ecological impacts. The magnitude and rate of warming for the global average will be largely dictated by the strength and direction of climate feedbacks, thermal inertia of the oceans, the rate of greenhouse gas emissions, and aerosol concentrations. Because of regional expressions of climate feedbacks, changes in atmospheric circulation, and a suite of other factors, the magnitude and rate of warming and changes in other key climate elements, such as precipitation, will not be uniform across the planet. For example, due to loss of its floating sea-ice cover, the Arctic will warm the most.

机译：地球大气层具有自然的温室效应，没有这种效应，全球平均表面温度将降低约33 C，生命将无法实现。人类活动已使大气中的二氧化碳，甲烷和其他气体的浓度增加了痕量。这增强了温室效应，导致表面变暖。如果不是因为气溶胶浓度增加的部分抵消作用，过去100年全球平均表面温度的增加将大于观察到的。在21世纪持续的地表升温是不可避免的，并且可能会产生广泛的生态影响。全球平均值的变暖幅度和速率将在很大程度上取决于气候反馈的强度和方向，海洋的热惯性，温室气体排放速率以及气溶胶浓度。由于气候反馈的区域表达，大气环流的变化以及一系列其他因素，变暖的幅度和速度以及其他关键气候要素（例如降水）的变化在整个地球上将是不一致的。例如，由于失去了漂浮的海冰盖，北极将成为最温暖的地方。

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《Conservation Biology》 |2010年第1期|共8页
作者
MARK C. SERREZE;
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正文语种 eng
中图分类环境生物学;
关键词
climate change; greenhouse effect; radiative forcing; feedbacks; climate sensitivity;

机译：气候变化;温室效应;辐射强迫;反馈;气候敏感性;

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机译：海洋调节了全球气候对自然和人为强迫的响应。然而，在过去的2,000年中（这是了解当前和未来气候对这些强迫的响应的关键间隔），全球海表温度变化及其潜在的驱动机制受到的约束很有限。在这里，我们提出了一个共同的时期（ce）的全球海面温度的全球综合，该综合来自57个符合严格质量控制标准的海洋重建项目。我们观察到从1到1800 ce的冷却趋势，对于显式测试重建中潜在的偏倚而言，该趋势很稳健。在801至1800 ce之间，表面降温趋势在质量上与地面温度重建的独立合成以及从使用过去外部辐射强迫的最佳估计的气候模型模拟集合推导出的海面温度合成在质量上是一致的。使用单一和累积强迫的气候模拟表明，从801到1800 ce的海洋表面冷却趋势主要不是对轨道强迫的反应，而是爆炸性火山爆发的频繁发生。我们的结果表明，火山喷发的反复簇可引起净的负辐射强迫，这会导致混合层海洋热量降低而导致百年和全球规模的降温趋势。
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Understanding Recent Climate Change

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