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首页> 外文期刊>World future review: A journal of strategic foresight >A Banquet of Consequences Living in the’Nobody-Could-Have-Predicted‘Era
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A Banquet of Consequences Living in the’Nobody-Could-Have-Predicted‘Era

机译：生活在一个宴会的后果的'Nobody-Could-Have-Predicted’era

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摘要

How much of the future can we understand, and to what degree can we actually anticipate the consequences of our actions? While we futurists have tended to downplay the importance of accurately seeing the future, these are questions well worth exploring today. Futures are defined, evaluated, and experienced within a framework of understanding and expectations that we negotiate with our clients. This framework, in turn, is influenced by an environment of cultural and social norms that define how we think about the future; what we believe can and cannot be said about the future; what kinds of future events people can anticipate; and how accountable leaders should be for anticipating disasters and creating good futures. If something in this environment changes, it is worth assessing how it affects our work. In this essay I trace one such important change, and it is a recent shift in popular use of an important "keyword" of the future: the concept of unintended consequences.
机译：未来我们能理解多少,实际上我们能预见到什么学位我们行为的后果吗?倾向于淡化的重要性吗准确地看到未来,这些都是问题今天值得探索。评估和经验丰富的框架内理解和期望,我们谈判与我们的客户。文化和环境的影响社会规范定义了我们如何思考未来;对未来;人们可以预测;领导人应该预期灾害创造良好的未来。环境的变化,值得评估如何影响我们的工作。重要的变化,这是最近的一次转变流行的一个重要的“关键词”未来:概念的意想不到的后果。

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