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Dispersion modelling of the kilauea plume

机译：基拉韦厄烟羽的分散建模

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Emissions from the Kilauea volcano pose significant environmental and health risks to the Hawaiian community. This paper describes progress toward simulating the concentration and dispersion of plumes of volcanic aerosol after they emanate from thePu'u O'o vent of the Kilauea volcano. In order to produce an accurate regional forecast of the concentration and dispersion of volcanic aerosol, the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HY-SPLIT) model was used. Wind fields and thermodynamic data from the non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Spectral Model (MSM) were employed as input for the HY-SPLIT model. A combination of satellite remote sensing, aircraft, and ground-based observations collected during a field experiment was used to validate the model simulation of aerosol distribution. The HY-SPLIT model shows skill in reproducing the plume shape, orientation, and concentration gradients as deduced from satellite images of aerosol optical depth. Comparison of the modelled and observed values suggests that the model was able to produce reasonable plume concentrations and spatial gradients downwind of the source. Model concentrations were generally less than those observed on the leeward side of the Island of Hawaii. This deficiency may beexplained by a lack of (i) background concentrations, (ii) local sources of pollution and/or (iii) sea-breeze circulation in the prognostic input wind field. These results represent early progress toward the goal of future operational application of theHY-SPLIT model to predict volcanic aerosol concentrations in Hawaii. This may help mitigate their negative impacts of plumes respiratory health, agriculture, and general aviation.
机译：基拉韦厄火山的火山排放给夏威夷社区带来了严重的环境和健康风险。本文介绍了模拟从基拉韦厄火山的普阿奥奥喷口散发出的火山气溶胶羽流的浓度和扩散的进展。为了对火山气溶胶的浓度和扩散产生准确的区域预报，使用了混合单颗粒拉格朗日综合轨迹（HY-SPLIT）模型。来自非静水中尺度谱模型（MSM）的风场和热力学数据被用作HY-SPLIT模型的输入。在野外试验中收集的卫星遥感，飞机和地面观测资料的组合用于验证气溶胶分布的模型模拟。 HY-SPLIT模型显示了再现从烟雾光学深度的卫星图像推导出的羽状形状，方向和浓度梯度的技能。对模型值和观测值的比较表明，该模型能够在源头顺风方向产生合理的羽流浓度和空间梯度。模型浓度通常小于在夏威夷岛的背风侧观察到的浓度。缺乏（i）背景浓度，（ii）局部污染源和/或（iii）预后输入风场中的海风环流可以解释这种缺陷。这些结果代表了朝着HY-SPLIT模型的未来操作应用预测夏威夷的火山气溶胶浓度的目标的早期进展。这可能有助于减轻它们对烟气呼吸健康，农业和通用航空的负面影响。

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