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Risk Analysis in Oil Spill Response Planning

机译:溢油应急计划中的风险分析

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This paper discusses: the incorporation of operating conditions into Risk Analysis, RA; the technical parameters (amount of oil spilled, duration of discharge) and types of losses to be provided in scenarios for usage in oil spill response (OSR) planning; processing of a scenario file - categorization of scenarios, identification of extreme cases, averaging for risk. Significant examples of applications are: offshore installation, subsea and onshore pipelines, and localized onshore facilities. The paper also addressed how to use RA results for delineation of all possible spills into groups that require a particular tier of response, as well as different definitions of tiers and a comparison of the best world practice and Russian regulatory approaches. The paper demonstrates a logical path from practical definitions to ones that are mathematically correct. Development of corresponding algorithms and their application in respect of pipelines are presented.rnThe paper also addresses: delineation of a huge set of accidental scenarios within a certain tier of response, generated by a computer during RA, into several categories that contain all oil spills require same or similar response for OSR capability, strategy, tactics and logistics; judgment on a proximity (equality) of response patterns on the basis of accident scenarios features; the problem of indi-vidualization of a typical spill; development of corresponding algorithms and their application in respect to pipelines; how to develop a response pattern on the basis of accident scenario knowledge; combining expert's skills and spill trajectory modeling; practical incorporation of net environmental benefit analysis (NEBA) principle into Incident Specific Emergency Response Planning (ISERP); the role of scenario-specific parameters (with example of fish damage calculations); and expected outcomes.
机译:本文讨论:将操作条件并入风险分析RA中。方案中应提供的技术参数(溢油量,排放持续时间)和损失类型,以用于溢油应急响应(OSR)规划;方案文件的处理-方案的分类,极端情况的识别,风险的平均。应用的重要示例是:海上安装,海底和陆上管道以及本地化的陆上设施。本文还讨论了如何使用RA结果将所有可能的泄漏划定为需要特定响应级别的组,以及不同级别的定义以及最佳国际惯例和俄罗斯监管方法的比较。本文演示了从实际定义到数学上正确的逻辑路径。还介绍了相应算法的开发及其在管道方面的应用。本文还解决了以下问题:将在RA期间计算机生成的特定响应层中的大量意外场景划分为包含所有溢油需要的几类对OSR能力,策略,策略和后勤的反应相同或相似;根据事故场景特征判断响应模式的接近度(相等);典型泄漏的个体化问题;开发相应的算法及其在管道方面的应用;如何在事故场景知识的基础上制定应对模式;结合专家技能和溢出轨迹建模;实际将净环境效益分析(NEBA)原则纳入事件特定的应急计划(ISERP);情景特定参数的作用(以鱼类损害计算为例);和预期的结果。

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