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首页> 中文期刊> 《土壤》 >基于CA-Markov模型的土地利用景观格局预测研究

基于CA-Markov模型的土地利用景观格局预测研究

         
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摘要

土地利用景观格局分析及预测,对平衡经济发展和生态保护、实现土地可持续生态利用和保护管理具有重要意义.本文以江西省抚州市东乡县为例,利用2005年和2015年两期遥感影像,获取东乡县土地利用类型转化数据,结合景观生态学研究了东乡县近10年的土地利用景观格局变化特征;运用CA-Markov模型对土地利用变化过程进行模拟,预测和分析了东乡县未来10年土地利用景观格局特征.结果表明:东乡县在过去10年建设用地、耕地分别增加了71.82、10.76 km2,水域、林地和未利用地相应减少,减少幅度顺序为未利用地>水域>林地;各景观斑块分布均匀,景观多样性增加;景观形状趋于简单,相互之间连通性降低、关系变弱.人类经济活动及土地利用政策对东乡县景观格局有显著影响.到2025年东乡县建设用地将增加68.72 km2,水域、林地和未利用地仍将不断减少,但耕地有所增加;景观斑块数增加,形状略趋复杂;景观异质程度提高,有向多样化、均匀化发展的变化趋势.总体来说,东乡县景观格局正逐步朝着稳定、均匀和多样的方向发展,但仍需加大力度保护和增加耕地资源,控制和合理规划建设用地,维持生态环境平衡.%Analysis and prediction of land use pattern is significant not only to balanced economic development and ecological protection, but also to ecological sustainable use and management of land protection. The study obtained the land-use map on the bases of remote sensing images in 2005 and 2015 of Dongxiang County, Jiangxi Province of East China and used the map to acquire conversion data and landscape indexes of land use types by ArcGIS 9.3 and Fragstats 4.2. Based on the conversion data and landscape indexes of land use types, the landscape pattern of Dongxiang County from 2005 to 2015 was analyzed. CA-Markov model was used to simulate the dynamics of land use change with time and state, and to predict land use pattern in the next 10 years. The results indicated: Construction land and arable land increased by 71.82 km2and 10.76 km2respectively for the past 10 years, but water area, forest land and unused land decreased with an order of unused land >water area>forest land. Compared to the 2005, landscape patches distributed more evenly, landscape diversity increased, landscape shape tended to be simple and landscape patch connectivity became lower in 2015, which indicated the associations between landscape patches weakened in 2015. Human economic activity and land use policies had more obvious effects on landscape pattern. According to the forecast by CA-Markov model, it is predicted that by 2025 construction land will be increased by 68.72 km2, water area, forest land and unused land will continue decreasing, but the arable land will increase. The number of landscape patches and the landscape heterogeneity will increase, the patch shape will become a little more complex. Landscape pattern will become more diversified and homogenized. In conclusion, landscape pattern of Dongxiang is gradually become more stable, homogeneous and diverse, but great efforts and reasonable plans are needed to protect arable land, to control the use of construction land, and to maintain the balance of the ecological environment.

著录项

  • 来源
    《土壤》 |2018年第2期|391-397|共7页
  • 作者

    潘月; 于东升; 王秀虹; 徐志超; 王玺洋;

  • 作者单位

    土壤与农业可持续发展国家重点实验室(中国科学院南京土壤研究所),南京 210008;

    中国科学院大学,北京 100049;

    土壤与农业可持续发展国家重点实验室(中国科学院南京土壤研究所),南京 210008;

    中国科学院大学,北京 100049;

    土壤与农业可持续发展国家重点实验室(中国科学院南京土壤研究所),南京 210008;

    中国科学院大学,北京 100049;

    土壤与农业可持续发展国家重点实验室(中国科学院南京土壤研究所),南京 210008;

    中国科学院大学,北京 100049;

    土壤与农业可持续发展国家重点实验室(中国科学院南京土壤研究所),南京 210008;

    中国科学院大学,北京 100049;

  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 chi
  • 中图分类 景观学、区域论;生态系统与污染生态学;环境遥感;
  • 关键词

    景观格局; 景观指数; CA-Markov模型; 土地利用; 红壤丘陵区;

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