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From theory to experimental design—Quantifying a trait-based theory of predator-prey dynamics

机译：从理论到实验设计—量化基于特征的捕食-被捕食动力学理论

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Successfully applying theoretical models to natural communities and predicting ecosystem behavior under changing conditions is the backbone of predictive ecology. However, the experiments required to test these models are dictated by practical constraints, and models are often opportunistically validated against data for which they were never intended. Alternatively, we can inform and improve experimental design by an in-depth pre-experimental analysis of the model, generating experiments better targeted at testing the validity of a theory. Here, we describe this process for a specific experiment. Starting from food web ecological theory, we formulate a model and design an experiment to optimally test the validity of the theory, supplementing traditional design considerations with model analysis. The experiment itself will be run and described in a separate paper. The theory we test is that trophic population dynamics are dictated by species traits, and we study this in a community of terrestrial arthropods. We depart from the Allometric Trophic Network (ATN) model and hypothesize that including habitat use, in addition to body mass, is necessary to better model trophic interactions. We therefore formulate new terms which account for micro-habitat use as well as intra- and interspecific interference in the ATN model. We design an experiment and an effective sampling regime to test this model and the underlying assumptions about the traits dominating trophic interactions. We arrive at a detailed sampling protocol to maximize information content in the empirical data obtained from the experiment and, relying on theoretical analysis of the proposed model, explore potential shortcomings of our design. Consequently, since this is a “pre-experimental” exercise aimed at improving the links between hypothesis formulation, model construction, experimental design and data collection, we hasten to publish our findings before analyzing data from the actual experiment, thus setting the stage for strong inference.
机译：成功地将理论模型应用于自然群落并在变化的条件下预测生态系统行为是预测生态学的基础。但是，测试这些模型所需的实验受实际限制所支配，并且通常会针对未曾打算使用的数据进行机会验证模型。另外，我们可以通过对该模型进行深入的实验前分析来告知和改进实验设计，从而产生更针对测试理论有效性的实验。在这里，我们将针对特定实验描述此过程。从食物网生态学理论出发，我们建立了一个模型并设计了一个实验，以优化测试该理论的有效性，并通过模型分析补充了传统的设计注意事项。实验本身将在单独的文件中进行运行和描述。我们测试的理论是，营养种群的动态取决于物种的性状，我们在一个陆生节肢动物群落中进行研究。我们偏离了异养营养网络（ATN）模型，并假设除了体重以外，包括栖息地的使用对于更好地模拟营养相互作用是必要的。因此，我们制定了新术语，以解释ATN模型中微栖息地的使用以及种内和种间干扰。我们设计了一个实验和一个有效的采样方案来测试该模型以及有关主导营养相互作用的性状的基本假设。我们得出了一个详细的采样协议，以最大程度地提高从实验中获得的经验数据中的信息含量，并依靠对所提出模型的理论分析，探索我们设计的潜在缺陷。因此，由于这是一项“实验前”的练习，旨在改善假设表述，模型构建，实验设计和数据收集之间的联系，因此我们在分析实际实验数据之前必须先发表我们的发现，从而为进一步的实验奠定基础。推理。

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