...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health >Scoping the Impact of Changes in Population Age-Structure on the Future Burden of Foodborne Disease in The Netherlands, 2020–2060
【24h】

Scoping the Impact of Changes in Population Age-Structure on the Future Burden of Foodborne Disease in The Netherlands, 2020–2060

机译：在2020-2060中，在荷兰食源性疾病的未来负担的影响范围内

获取原文
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

A demographic shift towards a larger proportion of elderly in the Dutch population in the coming decades might change foodborne disease incidence and mortality. In the current study we focused on the age-specific changes in the occurrence of foodborne pathogens by combining age-specific demographic forecasts for 10-year periods between 2020 and 2060 with current age-specific infection probabilities for Campylobacter spp., non-typhoidal Salmonella, hepatitis A virus, acquired Toxoplasma gondii and Listeria monocytogenes. Disease incidence rates for the former three pathogens were estimated to change marginally, because increases and decreases in specific age groups cancelled out over all ages. Estimated incidence of reported cases per 100,000 for 2060 mounted to 12 (Salmonella), 51 (Campylobacter), 1.1 (hepatitis A virus) and 2.1 (Toxoplasma). For L. monocytogenes, incidence increased by 45% from 0.41 per 100,000 in 2011 to 0.60 per 100,000. Estimated mortality rates increased two-fold for Salmonella and Campylobacter to 0.5 and 0.7 per 100,000, and increased by 25% for Listeria from 0.06 to 0.08. This straightforward scoping effort does not suggest major changes in incidence and mortality for these food borne pathogens based on changes in de population age-structure as independent factor. Other factors, such as changes in health care systems, social clustering and food processing and preparation, could not be included in the estimates.
机译：在未来几十年中达到荷兰人人口大部分老年人的人口转变可能会改变食源性疾病发病率和死亡率。在目前的研究中，我们专注于通过将年龄特异性的人口预报与2020和2060之间的年龄特征的人口预报相结合，具有目前对弯曲杆菌的特异性感染概率组合的年龄特异性的人口统计预测来占食物载虫病原菌的年龄的变化。，非Typhoidal Salmonella ，甲型肝炎病毒，获得的毒素弓形虫和李斯特菌单核细胞元。估计前三种病原体的疾病发病率略微变化，因为特定年龄组的增加和减少取消了所有年龄段。报告每101万案例的报告病例发生率为12（沙门氏菌），51（Campylobacter），1.1（甲型肝炎病毒）和2.1（弓形虫）。对于L.单核细胞增生，2011中的每100万次发病率增加了45％至0.60万％。估计的死亡率为沙门氏菌和弯曲杆菌增加了0.5％和0.7每100,000的0.5和0.7，并且李斯特菌增加了25％，从0.06升至0.08。这种直接的范围努力并不提示这些食品传统病原体的发病率和死亡率的重大变化，这是基于德人口年龄结构的变化作为独立因素。其他因素，如医疗保健系统，社会聚类和食品加工和准备的变化，不能包含在估计中。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号