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Maritime navigation accidents and risk indicators: An exploratory statistical analysis using AIS data and accident reports

机译：海上航行事故和风险指标：使用AIS数据和事故报告的探索性统计分析

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摘要

This paper presents the results of statistical analyses of maritime accidents data and AIS data from Norwegian waters, to identify conditions that are associated with navigation related accidents (groundings and collisions) and could be used as risk indicators. Vessels involved in accidents reported in the accident database of the Norwegian Maritime Directorate (NMA), have been traced in historical AIS records, and data related to each ship have been transformed into variables. These variables are related to the behavior of the ship in front of the accident (e.g. nautical miles sailed, hours in operations, number of port calls etc.), technical and organizational conditions (ship categories, flag state, age, gross tonnage, Paris MoU ratings etc.) and the area where the accident occurred (number of vessels in the area, port calls in the area, nautical miles in the area etc.). Both the AIS data and the data from the NMA accident database have first been analyzed using correspondence analysis (categorical variables), F-tests (continuous variables), and then combined in a multivariate logistic regression model with "navigation accidents" and "other accidents" as dependent variables. The model is a strong predictor for whether the accident is navigation-related or not. Specifically, some vessel types, less vessel length, poor visibility condition, and a flag of convenience increased this probability.
机译：本文介绍了来自挪威水域的海事事故数据和AIS数据的统计分析结果，以识别与航行相关事故（地面和碰撞）有关的状况，并可用作风险指标。挪威海事局（NMA）事故数据库中报告的与事故有关的船只已在AIS的历史记录中进行了追溯，并且与每艘船有关的数据已转换为变量。这些变量与事故发生前船舶的行为（例如航行的海里，运营小时数，港口停靠的次数等），技术和组织条件（船舶类别，船旗国，年龄，总吨位，巴黎）有关谅解备忘录等级等）和发生事故的地区（该地区的船只数量，该地区的港口电话，该地区的海里等）。首先使用对应分析（分类变量），F检验（连续变量）对AIS数据和NMA事故数据库中的数据进行了分析，然后将其与“导航事故”和“其他事故”组合成多变量Logistic回归模型”作为因变量。该模型可以很好地预测事故是否与导航有关。具体而言，某些船只类型，更少的船只长度，较差的可见性条件以及便利的标志增加了这种可能性。

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