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Differences in probability weighting for individual travelers: a managed lane choice application

机译：单个旅行者概率加权的差异：托管车道选择应用

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摘要

Using a 2012 stated preference survey based on a traveler's most recent actual trip, this study predicts traveler choices between general purpose lanes and managed lanes for a freeway in Houston, Texas. The choice model incorporates probability weighting for risky travel times. The results indicate significant improvement in predicative power over a model that excludes weighting, confirming non-linearity in the probability weighting function. The maximum value of time (VOT) measures calculated in this study are lower than estimated in many previous route choice studies. This highlights the importance of incorporating individual weights for travel risks. Travelers' underweighting of travel time risks would help explain the lower VOTs found in our study because respondents consider route choice decision-making as a gamble, but assign their own probabilities of occurrence to arriving at their destination on time, late, or early. We find that traveler groups are heterogeneous and the different weights developed for different groups of travelers can be used to better understand their probabilities. Segmentation analysis indicates that Age may serve to proxy the effects of more experience over time, or changing driving abilities, or changes in one's sense of optimism or pessimism at different ages. Gender and Income also play a role in how the objective probabilities presented to respondents were translated into subjective probabilities.
机译：该研究使用2012年基于旅行者最近一次实际旅行的陈述性偏好调查，预测了德克萨斯州休斯顿的高速公路的通用车道和管理车道之间的旅行者选择。选择模型结合了风险旅行时间的概率加权。结果表明，与除权重的模型相比，预测能力的显着提高，证实了概率权重函数中的非线性。在这项研究中计算出的最大时间（VOT）度量值低于许多以前的路线选择研究中的估计值。这凸显了将个人权重纳入旅行风险的重要性。旅行者偏重旅行时间风险将有助于解释我们研究中发现的较低的VOT，因为受访者将路线选择决策视为赌博，但将自己的发生概率指定为准时，晚或早到达目的地。我们发现旅行者群体是异类的，为不同旅行者群体开发的不同权重可以用来更好地理解他们的概率。细分分析表明，年龄可能会随着时间的推移，驾驶能力的变化或不同年龄段的乐观情绪或悲观情绪的变化而影响更多经验的影响。性别和收入在将呈现给受访者的客观概率转化为主观概率方面也发挥着作用。

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  • 来源
    《Transportation》 |2017年第2期|375-393|共19页
  • 作者

    Huang Chao; Burris Mark; Shaw W. Douglass;

  • 作者单位

    C&M Associates, Tollway Towers North,Suite 870, Dallas, TX 75248 USA;

    Texas A&M Univ, Zachry Dept Civil Engn, CE TTI Bldg,Room 301B, College Stn, TX 77843 USA;

    Texas A&M Univ, Dept Agr Econ & Hazard Reduct, College Stn, TX 77843 USA|Texas A&M Univ, College Stn, TX 77843 USA;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Probability weighting; Cumulative prospect theory; Managed lanes; Value of time;

    机译：概率加权;累积前景理论;可管理通道;时间值;

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