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Integrated Risk of Progress-Based Costs and Schedule Delays in Construction Projects

机译：基于进度的成本的综合风险和建筑项目中的进度延误

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摘要

This article aims to explore the impact of the integration of risk factors into delayed milestones for construction projects. A simulation model was developed to determine the impact of schedule variability on cost estimation. To generate random scenarios a Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) technique was applied. The developed model computes the cost impact of delayed milestone in the expected budget. Using a risk integration approach revealed the critical time frame that may lead to a budget deficit for a project. As a result, a number of cost-sensitive risk factors and schedule delays were identified for the critical time period where the risk of budget deficit increases. The method of integration proposed in this article highlights the priority of risk factors and schedule delays for construction contracts involving Payments at Event Occurrences (PEO). Consequently, the developed method can be useful for practitioners in anticipation of potential increase of costs, hence, prevention of failure due to budget deficit.
机译：本文旨在探讨危险因素整合到建筑项目延迟里程碑中的影响。开发了一种模拟模型，以确定时间表变异性对成本估算的影响。为了生成随机场景，应用了蒙特卡罗模拟（MCS）技术。开发模式计算了预期预算中延迟里程碑的成本影响。使用风险集成方法揭示了可能导致项目预算赤字的临界时间框架。因此，在预算赤字亏损风险增加的关键时间段内确定了许多成本敏感的危险因素和进度延迟。本文提出的整合方法突出了危险因素的优先权，并在事件发生时涉及付款（PEO）的施工合同的时间表延误。因此，开发的方法对于从业者预期潜在的成本增加，因此，预防预算赤字导致的失败。

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